Hull City Punishes United's Defence in Victory
Hull City's 1-0 win over Manchester United on Saturday was a disastrous start to the campaign for the visitors, with the Red Devils struggling to create chances against the Tigers' back five. The match was a must-win for United, given the gulf in resources and expectation, but they were unable to penetrate Hull's defensive structure.
Opta rated United's chance of victory at 68.9% before kick-off, but the visitors' inability to deal with Oli McBurnie as the target man was painful to watch. Their slack defending on the set pieces from which Hull scored will also draw focus. However, the issue is the breakdown of chances that contributed to the total. United had 21 shots, 16 of which were worth less than 0.1 expected goals.
This was a theme last season, albeit less obvious when they performed well under Carrick. United's open-play shots were worth an average of 0.104 expected goals in 2025-26, the third worst rate among teams that finished in the top half of the Premier League. Against Hull, this figure was just 0.087.
Not until the 78th minute did a notable opportunity fall to a player they would hope to have one, as Bryan Mbeumo received a through ball from Matheus Cunha. Before that, their highest-value chances fell to Patrick Dorgu and Noussair Mazraoui. The former has experience as a winger, and started in the attacking midfield trio in United's 4-2-3-1 formation, but the duo have just 16 top-flight goals between them.
Marcus Rashford is far stronger. He should take Dorgu's berth in the long term, assuming he remains with the club. His natural attacking instincts may have aided in the creation of better chances in the first half. Regardless, it was alarming how hard United found it to fashion valuable opportunities against a club that conceded the second-most expected goals in the 2025-26 Championship.
Hull's manager, Sergej Jakirovic, used a back five. He deployed three centre-backs on 10 occasions last season, notably in victories in the playoff semi-final second leg against Millwall and the final against Middlesbrough. It worked against United, with the extra bodies at the back able to crowd out attackers. Opta's shot map showed Hull conceded eight efforts in the “danger zone” – the centre of the penalty area that covers the width of the six-yard box out to the 18-yard line.
Five of the eight were headers, which are harder to convert, leaving little else of note. Space in the most valuable real estate came at a premium at the MKM Stadium and United were unable to penetrate it. This structure has caused United problems before. They have now won only one of their last six league matches against teams that started with a back three or five.
What Comes Next?
As United look to bounce back from their defeat, they will be hoping to address their attacking issues. With a number of key players still sidelined, including Charlie Hughes, Darko Gyabi, Jack Butland, Joe Gelhardt, Lewie Coyle, and Óscar Zambrano, the Red Devils will be relying on their bench strength to get them through the tough times ahead.
Hull City, on the other hand, will be looking to build on their victory and continue their winning form. With a number of key players in top form, including Oli McBurnie, the Tigers will be confident of taking on any team in the Championship.
Recent Form
Hull City are currently on a 4-game winning run, with a recent form of 4W-1D-0L (WWWWD, most recent first). They have scored 70 goals this season, conceding 66, and are 22 points behind leaders Coventry in the title race.
League standing (final 2025 table -- new season not yet under way): 6th in Championship, 73 pts, 21W-10D-15L from 46 games, recent form WWDWL.
